In his new book, The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization’s Northern Future, UCLA geologist Dr. Laurence C. Smith, a rising star in geoscience, distills cutting edge scientific research into four global forces (demographic trends, natural resource demand, climate change, and globalization) to offer a vivid prediction of what the world we leave to our children and grandchildren will be like.
 

I’m looking forward to watching this… I think there is a problem with the video though.

Amazon says that Smith’s book contains as an explicit premise that its a prediction of the future is based on the assumption that there will be (1) no technological breakthroughs, and (2) no random political catastrophes or bolide impacts.  I can get 2, there is no accounting for that.  But is assuming there will be no technological breakthroughs anymore a rational assumption when discussing the future?  Does it allow you to draw conclusions which have a hope of being relevant?  Why would he assume that in 50 years we are still dependent on and limited by the same things we are now?